INTO AFRICA September 2019 Edition – Reviewing 2018 African Outlook

Welcome to the September 2019 edition of INTO AFRICA, a publication written by the professionals, for professionals, investors, policymakers … Advancing and providing fresh insight into Africa’s emerging markets through renowned thought leadership and peer-to-peer knowledge-sharing. The edition is titled: Reviewing 2019 African Outlook.

According to the July 2019 Word Economic Outlook, the growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected at 3.4 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.1 percentage point lower for both years than in the April World Economic Outlook. As strong growth in many non-resource-intensive countries partially offsets the lackluster performance of the region’s largest economies. Higher, albeit volatile, oil prices have supported the outlook for Angola, Nigeria, and other oil-exporting countries in the region. But growth in South Africa is expected at a more subdued pace in 2019 than previously projected following a very weak first quarter, reflecting a larger-than-anticipated impact of strike activity and energy supply issues in mining and weak agricultural production.

South Africa avoided a second recession in two years, with the economy growing by 3.1% in the three months to end-June. Whereas, Nigerian economic growth slipped to 1.94% in the second quarter of 2019 compared to a revised 2.10 percent growth in the first quarter of 2019. Likewise, the economy of Angola and Botswana shrank 0.4 percent and 1.50 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019. Kenyan, Ghanaian, Uganda, Mauritius and Tunisian economic expanded by 1.66%, 1.60%, 0.30%, 0.30%, and 0.01% respectively in the first quarter of 2019 over the previous quarter.

While Africa remains a region with tremendous growth potential, a prudent fiscal policy is needed to rein in public debt, while monetary policy must be geared toward ensuring low inflation. African countries should also strengthen revenue mobilization and continue to advance structural reforms to reduce market distortions, shaping an environment that fosters private investment.

SAMIR GADIO (Head of Africa Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank, London) explores the performance and the prospect of the frontier Sub-Saharan African (SSA) debt markets. He stated that the markets have experienced a strong run so far in 2019, both in external and local bonds. VARUSHKA SINGH (Fixed Income and Currencies Strategist, South Africa) reviews the state of South African Rand. As well, the RESEARCH TEAM (Vetiva Capital Management Limited Nigeria) examines the health of the Nigerian economy.

PLEASE CLICK TO DOWNLOAD – INTO AFRICA PUBLICATION: SEPTEMBER 2019 EDITION.